An all-electric energy system by 2050 is possible

A new study concludes that the transition to 100% renewable energy is feasible and cost-effective, could reduce GHG emissions in the energy system to 0%, and could be achieved by 2050 or even earlier.

Fourteen of the world’s leading energy transition scientists used state-of-the-art energy transition modelling simulation and hourly geo-spatial resolutions to compute the cost-optimal mix of technologies based on local available renewable energy sources.

The study, which took over four years to complete, shows that a global 100% renewable energy system can be achieved with zero GHG emissions before 2050 and more cost-effectively than the current fossil fuel and nuclear-based energy system. It was conducted by researchers at the Energy Watch Group in Germany and LUT University in Finland.

What’s the new energy system?

Solar PV will provide the most electricity by 2050; approximately 69% of the total energy supply. This will be complemented mainly by wind energy (18%), bioenergy (6%), hydropower (3%) and geothermal (2%). This translates to a total installed capacity of approximately 63,400 GW of solar PV and 8,000 GW of wind energy across the world by 2050. (To put those figures into context, the world currently has around 550 GW of solar PV capacity and 580 GW of wind).

Interestingly, around 19% of electricity generation will come from PV prosumers, thus driving a more decentralised energy transition across the different regions of the world.

Energy storage will meet nearly 23% of electricity demand and approximately 26% of heat demand. Batteries will emerge as the most relevant electricity storage technology and thermal energy storage as the most relevant heat storage technology by 2050.

 Shares of primary energy supply in 2015 and 2050.

All electricity?

The scientists are suggesting an energy system where EVERYTHING is electrified: power, heat, transportation, manufacturing, desalinization etc. All this takes into consideration a world population that by 2050 is expected to reach 9.7 billion (up from 7.2 billion in 2015), and an increase in energy demand of about 1.8% annually, driven by energy services for a higher standard of living, and accompanied by massive energy efficiency gains.

Cheaper too

The researchers say that this 100% renewable energy will be cheaper than the current energy system. The levelised cost of energy will reduce from approximately 54 euros/MWh in 2015 to 53 euros/MWh by 2050. Not much of a saving, it seems, but when taking into account secondary economic and environmental benefits, the 100% renewable global energy system is considered a substantially cheaper option.

The total annual transport energy costs through the transition period are predicted to fall from around 2.09 trillion euros in 2015 to about 1.9 trillion euros by 2050. Final transport passenger costs will decline for road transport, with a marginal increase in costs for marine and aviation transport. Final transport freight costs will decline for road, remain stable for rail and marine, and increase slightly for aviation.

Regional differences in electricity supply

Naturally, the energy transition will lead to some noticeable regional renewable energy generation differences. South Asia is expected to lead the world in solar PV electricity generation by 2050; it will provide 95% of its energy needs. In Eurasia, onshore wind will dominate electricity generation. A few regions such as the Nordic region, Western Eurasia, Central China, Chile, and New Zealand will have a diversified mix of solar PV, wind and hydro. The diverse range of energy systems will therefore depend heavily on locally available resources, which enhances energy security around the world. The researchers optimistically predict that “this could lead to a more peaceful and prosperous global community.”

 

Main types of 100% renewable electricity systems

Zero emissions

Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions will drop to zero by 2050, or even sooner, across all energy sectors. Currently (in 2015), energy-related GHG emissions account for more than 60% of total global GHG emissions. In contrast to other claims, these researchers claim that a deep decarbonisation of the power and heat sectors is possible by as early as 2030.

Good news for jobs

A 100% global renewable energy system will support millions of local jobs in the power sector. In 2015, the global power sector employed approximately 20 million people, with more than 70% in the fossil fuel sector. The new all-electric power system will employ 35 million people, with solar PV emerging as the major job creating industry, employing more than 22 million by 2050, followed by battery, biomass, hydro and wind industries. The approximate 9 million jobs in the global coal industry of 2015 will be reduced to nearly zero by 2050 and will be overcompensated by more than 15 million new jobs in the renewable energy sector.

How is this going to work in practice?

To ensure a smooth, fast, and cost-effective transition to 100% renewable energy across all sectors, the research states that “governments need to adopt national legislative acts that will ensure the swift uptake in the development of renewable energy, storage technologies, sector coupling, and smart energy systems. Frameworks should include favourable investment conditions for all actors, including businesses and communities.”

Easier said than done, of course, but the researchers propose the following key political support measures to accelerate the energy transition:

• Policies and instruments focused on sector coupling and enabling direct private investment in renewable energy and other zero emission technologies.
• Feed-in Tariff laws should be adopted to enable investments (under 40 MW) from decentralised actors such as small and medium enterprises, cooperatives, communities, farmers and citizens.
• Tendering procedures for large-scale investors should only be applied for utility-scale capacities above 40 MW.
• A responsible phase-out of all state subsidies to fossil fuel and nuclear energy generation is necessary.
• Introduction of carbon, methane and radioactivity taxes.
• Incentives created to spur the growth of renewable energy technologies; such as tax exemptions, direct subsidies, and legal privileges.
• Policies and frameworks that promote research, education and information sharing on renewable energy and zero emission technologies. 

What others are saying

“This is truly a landmark-study. A detailed analysis that covers the whole globe with a one-hour time resolution demonstrates that a reliable global energy system based on 100% Renewable Energy is technically possible and financially advantageous. It is noteworthy that the study comes to the conclusion that the world will need for such a secure energy supply about 70 Terawatts of Solar Power (essentially Photovoltaics, PV) installed, and 8 Terawatts of wind – numbers, that will be important in planning the world’s trajectory in the coming years to avoid catastrophic climate changes.”
Prof. Eicke Weber, former Director of Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Freiburg, Germany

“The study shows impressively that a secure and cost-efficient energy supply to achieve the Paris climate targets with 100% renewable energy is not only technically possible, but also economically profitable. What is particularly significant about this study is that it shows that neither nuclear or CCS technologies nor geoengineering are required to achieve the climate targets cost-effectively.”
Prof. Claudia Kemfert, Hertie School of Governance, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin, Germany

Read it for yourself

Other topics are covered in the report such as the details of primary energy supply and heat supply, sustainable biofuels, synthetic fuel, natural carbon sinks, and desalination. Study the detailed report, executive summary and/or key findings on the Energy Watch Group website.

Source : http://www.leonardo-energy.info/2019/08/an-all-electric-energy-system-by-2050.html