World Energy Use in 2011

   

 World Energy Use in 2011: Slowdown in global energy demand 

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ENERDATA

/ Published on: 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 17:03

After the strong growth noticed in 2010, global energy consumption increased at a much slower pace in 2011 (2.2% to 4.9%). While this slowdown is mainly due to the economic crisis that hit OECD countries, the record oil prices also played a role, limiting the growth in global oil consumption even in energy-hungry countries such as China or India. In most OECD countries, the total energy consumption remained below pre-crisis levels but it accelerated in China and India. For several years now the world energy demand has revolved around the bullish Chinese and Indian markets, while developed countries struggle with stagnant economies and high oil prices, resulting in stable or decreasing energy consumption.

Growth in energy consumption in selected countries (%/year)

Source: Enerdata - Global Energy and CO2 Data

Sharp fall in energy consumption in most OECD countries

In 2011, OECD countries remained the largest energy consuming countries with 41% of the total energy consumption, although losing ground (43% in 2010 and 53% in 2000). Their energy consumption declined by 1.3%, in line with the 3.2% drop in the European Union, 6.6% fall in Japan and the stagnation in North America (-0.7% in the United States).

In the European Union, the decline was the result of the combination of economic stalemate, soaring oil and gas prices and warm weather. Energy consumption dropped by 2.1% in Italy, 3.5% in France, 4.9% in Germany and 7.1% in the United Kingdom, with natural gas consumption falling dramatically (ranging from -6.3% in Italy to -17% in the United Kingdom).

Energy consumption also contracted slightly in the United States (-15 Mtoe or -0.7%) as coal domestic consumption fell by 4.6% (-23 Mtoe). Higher hydropower generation and above all strong competition from natural gas (+2.5% in gas consumption in 2011) reduced coal demand from the power sector. Meanwhile coal exports surged as a result of supply disruptions in large producers such as Australia or Indonesia.

In Japan, the March 2011 events had a dramatic impact on the energy consumption (-6.6%). Many coal-fired power plants were damaged by the earthquake leading to a 5.2% drop in coal consumption and nuclear power plants were stopped, boosting gas consumption (+12%). Electricity restrictions post-Fukushima also resulted in a 5% drop in power demand.

Global energy consumption remains driven by China and India

In 2011, China confirmed its rank as largest energy consumer worldwide with global energy consumption accounting for 20%. It widened the gap with the United States (+19% above the USA).

Source: Enerdata - Global Energy and CO2 Data

Chinese energy consumption, which has tripled since 2000, continued to soar in 2011 (+7.7%). As in previous years, coal consumption fueled the growth (+9.4% in coal demand) and gas consumption remained buoyant, with a 22% rise in 2011 (+18% in 2010). However, oil products consumption only grew by 2.7% (+12% in 2010). Energy consumption also accelerated in India (+6.2% in 2011 vs. +5.4% in 2010) where coal demand continued to surge (12% in 2011, after a 6% rise in 2010).

The dynamic trend in China and India contributed to a 5.7% increase in the energy consumption of the BRICS countries in 2011. Energy consumption however slowed down in the other countries. Brazil had experienced a very strong growth in 2010 (+9.8%) but the total energy demand only rose by +1.4%; gas consumption actually dropped by 1.9% after a 30% increase in 2010. In Russia, domestic gas demand and coal consumption also slowed down (+2.5% compared to +11% in 2010 for gas, and +1.7% compared to +7.8% for coal), limiting the growth in energy demand to 3% (+8.9% in 2010). In South Africa, the 2.4% drop in coal consumption (+1.1% in 2010) contributed to the 1% decline in energy demand. The dynamic trends in Africa and Latin America (+3.1% and +5.1% respectively in 2010) stalled in 2011 (less than 1% growth).

Coal continues to fuel global growth

Coal was the fastest growing energy consumed in the world with +192 Mtoe (+5.4%), accounting for 2/3 of global growth in 2011.

Growth in global primary consumption by energy between 2010 and 2011

Source: Enerdata - Global Energy and CO2 Data

Solid fuel consumption was driven by the dynamic Chinese demand (45% of the world increase with +9.4% of growth in 2011), in particular for electricity generation. In India, where global demand in 2011 accounted for 10%, coal consumption also rose by 9%. In the European Union, coal became competitive against increasingly expensive natural gas, thus pushing solid fuel consumption upwards (+5.2% on average, but +10% in Poland and +74% in Spain, where national regulations promoted coal usage). On the contrary, coal consumption fell in the United States, where gas was more competitive. In Brazil and Russia, coal consumption increased slightly (+1.9%), twice lower than in Australia (+3.8%), while coal consumption dipped by 2.4% in South Africa.

Growth in coal consumption in selected countries (%/year)

Source: Enerdata - Global Energy and CO2 Data

Slow-down of natural gas consumption

Natural gas consumption increased by 2.3% in 2011, a much slower pace compared to 2010 (+8.2%). Gas demand fell by an average of 11% in the European Union, which accounted for 18% of the global gas consumption in 2010 (16% in 2011), as a result of high gas prices, economic stalemate and warm weather. Gas consumption fell dramatically for the largest consumers (-6% in Italy, -13% in the Netherlands and Germany and -17% in the United Kingdom). Chinese gas consumption remained buoyant (+22% in 2011 and +18% in 2010) and doubled between 2006 and 2011. The nuclear crisis aggravated Japan’s reliance on gas (+12%). Gas consumption also rose in producing countries (+7.9% on average in the Middle East, +3% in Canada) and in the United States (+2.5%).

Growth in gas consumption in selected countries (%/year)

Source: Enerdata - Global Energy and CO2 Data

Record international oil prices smash oil demand

In 2011, oil consumption only increased by 0.6% compared to the 3.2% growth in 2010, following record international oil prices.

Daily oil prices in 2010 and 2011 (left) and Growth in oil consumption in selected countries (right)

Source:Enerdata - Global Energy and CO2 Data

After a temporary resumption in 2010, refined product consumption fell by 1.3% in OECD countries, following decreasing trends in the largest consuming country, the United States (-1.8%), Japan (-2.4%) and the European Union (-2.9%).

With the exception of producing countries whose consumption growth remained strong in 2011 (+9% in Indonesia, +3.9% in India, +6% in Saudi Arabia and +5% in Brazil), oil demand slowed down in all major non-OECD consuming countries. Even in China the growth in oil consumption eroded in 2011 (+2.7% compared to +12% in 2010).

Dynamic electricity demand but two times slower than in 2010

In 2011, electricity consumption rose by 3.5%, driven by a soaring demand in Asia (+8.3%). China, whose power demand increased by nearly 12%, overtook the United States as the largest power consumer worldwide (21% and 20% of the total power consumption, respectively). Electricity consumption accelerated in India (+16% in 2011, over 8%/year on average since 2000), almost catching up with Russia (5% each of the global power generation) where power demand increased by 1.5% only. In spite of the power restrictions following the March 2011 events, which led to a 4.6% fall in electricity consumption, Japan remained the third largest electricity consuming country. The share of OECD countries in global electricity demand eroded in 2011 (from 52% in 2010 to 50%), in line with the contraction in the European Union (-2%) and in the United States (-0.8%). In the Middle East and in Latin America, power demand continued to grow at a steady pace (around 5%).

Growth in electricity consumption in selected countries (%/year)

Source: Enerdata - Global Energy and CO2 Data

The share of renewables in global power generation slightly exceeded 20% in the world in 2011. Renewables (mainly hydro) account for more than 58% of the power mix in Latin America and their share increased by 2 percentage points in North America; in the United States, hydropower production and wind generation rose by more than 25% and solar production by 50%; in Canada, hydropower production (60% of total generation) increased by 7% and wind generation doubled. In Europe, the share of renewables in power generation increased slightly to nearly 26% in 2011. In Italy and the United Kingdom, changes in the financial incentive schemes boosted solar power generation, which increased by 65% in the United Kingdom and rose fivefold in Italy. On the contrary, coal promotion policies – and to a lesser extent adverse hydro conditions – reduced the share of renewables in power generation from nearly 33% to 29% in Spain. In China, the steady progression of renewables in the power mix since 2007 stalled in 2011 (16% of the power generation, from 18% in 2010), in spite of a 22% increase in wind generation, owing to a rising coal-fired production. In India on the contrary, the share of renewables in the power mix gained 1 percentage point driven by hydropower (+14%) and wind (+23%).

Share of renewables in electricity production (incl. hydro) (%)

(Source: Enerdata - Global Energy and CO2 Data )