Chủ Nhật, tháng 1 20, 2013

Asia's Nuclear Energy Growth




 
 







    
  

       



(updated October 2012)  

  • Asia is the main region in the world where electricity
  •  generating capacity and specifically nuclear power
  •  is growing significantly. 
  • In East and South Asia there are 117 operable nuclear 
  • power reactors, 44 under construction and firm plans 
  • to build a further 90.  Many more are proposed. 
  • The greatest growth in nuclear generation is expected
  •  in China, South Korea and India. 
In contrast with North America and most of Western Europe where
 growth in electricity generating capacity and particularly nuclear 
power levelled out for many years, a number of countries in East 
and South Asia are planning and building new power reactors to meet 
their increasing demands for electricity.
Through to 2010 projected new generating capacity in this region 
 involved the addition of some 38 GWe per year, and from 2010 
to 2020 it is 56 GWe/yr, up to one third of this replacing retired plant. 
 This is about 36% of the world's new capacity (current world capacity
 is about 3700 GWe, of which 370 GWe is nuclear).  Much of this growth 
will be in China, Japan, India and Korea.  The nuclear share of this to 2020
 is expected to be considerable in three of those countries, especially
 if environmental constraints limit fossil fuel expansion.
There are currently 117 nuclear power reactors operable in five countries
 of the region plus Taiwan, 44 units under construction, firm plans in place
 to build 92 more, and serious proposals for another 180.
 

In addition, there are about 56 research reactors in fourteen countries
 of the region. The only major Pacific Rim countries without any kind 
of research reactor are Singapore and New Zealand.
Japan
50 units (44 GWe) operable (though many of these shut down 
 temporarily), 3 under construction, 10 planned (total 16 GWe),
 also 17 research reactors. 
Japan has been generating up to 30% of its electricity from nuclear power.
 By 2017, nuclear contribution was expected to increase to 41%, and
 longer term plans were to double nuclear capacity (to 90 GWe) and
 nuclear share by 2050. However, following the Fukushima accident
 in March 2012, these plans are certain to be scaled back, but the
 extent of that remains to be seen.
The new reactors most recently started up include third generation
 advanced reactors, with improved safety systems. The first of these
 was connected to the grid in 1996.
Japan is committed to reprocessing its used fuel to recover uranium
 and plutonium for re-use in electricity production, both as
 mixed-oxide fuel in conventional reactors, and also in fast
 neutron reactors.
Japan has a high temperature test reactor which has reached 950°C, 
 high enough to enable thermochemical production of hydrogen. 
It expects to use some 20 GW of nuclear heat for hydrogen 
production by 2050, with the first commercial plant coming on line in 2025.
China
15 units in operation (11.9 GWe), 26 under construction (27.6 GWe),
 51 planned (57.5 GWe), 120 proposed; also 13 research reactors. 
China is moving ahead rapidly in building new nuclear power plants, 
many of them conspicuously on time and on budget.  Some are leading
new-generation western designs.
Chinese electricity demand has been growing at more than 8% per year. 
The electricity demand is strongest in the Guangdong province adjacent 
 to Hong Kong. National plans call for 80 GWe nuclear by 2020, requiring
 an average of 7000 MWe per year to be added. The Chinese industry
 projects 200 GWe by 2030.
China has built a small advanced high-temperature gas-cooled 
 demonstration reactor (HTR) with pebble bed fuel, which started 
up in 2000. A commercial prototype HTR based on it is under construction.
Republic of Korea (South Korea)
23 units in operation (20.8 GWe), 4 under construction, 5 planned
 (total 12 GWe), also 2 research reactors. 
South Korea meets 35% of its electricity needs from nuclear power,
 and this is increasing.
The national plan is to expand to 35 nuclear power reactors by 2030, 
 including advanced reactor designs, and achieve 59% nuclear supply. 
 Demand for electricity in South Korea has been increasing strongly.
In collaboration with US companies, Korea developed the 1000 MWe
 OPR-1000 nuclear reactor which is 95% locally-made, and may be 
exported to Indonesia and Vietnam.  The newer AP1400 model is based
 on it, and four have been sold to United Arab Emirates in a $20 billion
 deal against strong competition.
 

South Korea has a US$ 1 billion R&D and demonstration program aiming 
to produce commercial hydrogen using nuclear heat about 2020.
North Korea
2 units partially built but subject to political delays, also 1 research reactor. 
North Korea was moving towards commissioning one small power reactor,
 but concern focussed on attempts to develop illicit weapons capability
 caused this to be halted.
The USA and South Korea offered assistance in substituting two reactors
 which would not produce weapons-grade plutonium, and agreement for 
these was signed late in 1995. They are (South) Korean Standard 
 Nuclear Power Plant type and construction of the first was about
one third complete when construction was abandoned.
India
20 units in operation (4.4 GWe), 7 under construction, 18 planned,
 39 proposed; also 5 research reactors. 
India has achieved independence in its nuclear fuel cycle. Nuclear power
 currently supplies less than 4% of electricity in India from 20 reactors.
 The units under construction include two large Russian reactors.
 A further 18 reactors are planned beyond that, including four more
 Russian units and two modern French ones. Plans are for 20 GWe by 2020.
India is a pioneer in developing the thorium fuel cycle, and has several 
advanced facilities related to this.
Pakistan
3 reactors in operation, 2 under construction, also 1 research reactor. 
Pakistan generates almost 4% of its electricity by nuclear, its third power
 reactor started up in 2011, and two more - supplied by China - are
 under construction.
The government plans for 8.0 GWe of nuclear capacity at ten sites
 by 2030.
Bangladesh
2 units planned, 1 research reactor 
The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission plans to build two 1000 MWe 
Russian nuclear reactors by 2020, with Russian finance. It has one operating
 research reactor.
Indonesia
2 reactors planned, 4 proposed, 3 research reactors. 
Demand for electricity in Indonesia has been growing rapidly, and
 this promoted development of several independent power projects.
The government says that it has $8 billion earmarked for four 
nuclear plants of total 6 GWe to be in operation by 2025, with Muria
 in central Java and Bangka Island off the north coast of southern Sumatra
 being candidate sites.
There is also proposed a small power and desalination plant proposed
 for Madura, using the S. Korean SMART reactor.
Vietnam
4 reactors planned, 6 proposed, 1 research reactor. 
Two Russian reactors total 2000 MWe are planned at Phuoc Dinh
 in the southern Ninh Thuan province to come into operation
 from by 2020, followed by another 2000 MWe using Japanese technology
 at Vinh Hai in the same province. These plants would be followed 
by a further 6000 MWe by 2030, subsequently increased to having
 a total of 15,000 MWe by 2030.
Demand is growing rapidly and is expected to reach about 190 billion kWh/yr 
in 2015 - from 40 billion kWh in 2003. More than half of its power
 comes from hydro, a quarter from gas. It has a research reactor
 at Da Lat, operated with Russian assistance.
 

Thailand
2 reactors planned, 4 proposed, 1 research reactor, + 1 being built. 
Interest by Thailand in nuclear power was revived by a forecast growth 
in electricity demand of 7 per cent per year for the next twenty years
. About 70% of electricity is from natural gas. Capacity requirement
 in 2016 is forecast at 48 GWe.
In June 2007 the Energy Minister announced that it would proceed 
with plans to build a 4000 MWe nuclear power plant, and has budgeted
 funds for preparatory work. However, plans have stalled.
Thailand has had an operating research reactor since 1977 and 
a larger one is under construction.
Philippines
1 reactor proposed, 1 research reactor. 
The Philippines has one power reactor completed but its operation 
was aborted over litigation concerning bribery and safety deficiencies. 
 In 2007 the government set up a project to study the development
 of nuclear energy, in the context of an overall energy plan for 
the country, to reduce dependence on imported oil and coal. 
 In 2008 an IAEA mission commissioned by the government
 advised that the nuclear plant could be refurbished and 
economically and safely be operated for 30 years.  
As well as this, the government is considering two further 
1000 MWe Korean Standard Nuclear Plant units, using equipment from the aborted North Korean KEDO project.

Malaysia 

1 research reactor. 
In 2008 the government announced that it had no option but
 to commission nuclear power due to high fossil fuel prices,
 and set 2023 as target date. Early in 2010 the government
 said it had budgeted $7 billion funds for this, and sites are 
being investigated.

See also: country papers and Emerging Nuclear Countries paper.
Nuclear Power in Asia, and Involvement with the Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Power Reactors operable or in Operation Power Reactors Under Construction Power Reactors Planned
 
Research Reactors Other Stages of the Fuel Cycle
Australia



1
UM
Bangladesh


2
1

China
15
26
 
51
13
UM, C, E, FF
India
20
7
 
18
 
5
UM, FF, R, WM
Indonesia


2
 
3
FF
Japan
50
3
10
17+1
C, E, FF, R, WM
S. Korea
23
4
 
5
 
2
C, FF
N.Korea


0
1
C?,FF?,R
Malaysia


0
1

Pakistan
3
2
0
 
1
UM, E, FF
Philippines


0
1

Thailand


0
 
1+1

Vietnam


4
1

** Total
117
 
44
92
56*

 

* 54 research reactors operable, 2 under construction
** The total includes 6 reactors in operation, plus two under construction, 
on Taiwan. It also has four research reactors. Taiwan has no other 
stages of the fuel cycle.
Key: UM Uranium Mining, C Conversion, E Enrichment, FF Fuel Fabrication,
 R Reprocessing, WM Waste Management facilities for used fuel away
 from reactors.
Sources:
WNA Reactor table, country papers
OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook
Nuclear Engineering International, World Nuclear Industry Handbook

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