About the global energy system

 

Everything you want to know about the global energy system

The second edition of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA) is a colossus. It contains no less than 1,865 pages of densely packed and informed data, analysis, and possible outcomes. It was written by a global panel of 30 highly specialized authors and reviewed by another 180 energy specialists. The result is as comprehensive as the title promises, ranging from statistics on energy sources and energy consumption to less obvious analyses such as water use by energy sources or the impact of different lifestyles on energy consumption. The book analyses the current state of affairs both from a worldwide perspective and in great depth. It also draws various potential future scenarios. Although the principal aim is to map the current situation and most probable immediate future, the GEA also expresses a vision on how to proceed in the best possible way.
The GEA was founded by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2005 and follows a similar writing and review process. According to the IPCC, a science-based assessment of the global energy system was needed if the challenges that we are facing are to be realistically addressed. After the publication of a first edition in 2006, the second edition was launched in June 2012. Few readers will have the time to go through the entire document and digest all of the details; but there is a 30-page summary for policy makers and a technical summary of 62 pages. When comparing those summaries with the far more detailed chapters, I discovered that they do not always coincide. The chapter on nuclear energy, for instance, clearly states that it should be considered only as a ‘last resort energy option.’ The summary on the other hand, seems more open. It concludes that both sides of the argument—a total nuclear phase-out and high investments in the nuclear energy sector to use it as a transition technology—are reasonable scenarios. This critique however is splitting hairs. Overall , the GEA is a very consistent and fully elaborated assessment.

Future scenarios

The GEA departs from straight enumeration of facts when it lists four main challenges to make the global energy system more sustainable:

• Stabilizing global climate change to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels
• Enhancing energy security by diversification and resilience of supply security
• Eliminating ambient and household pollution
• Achieving universal access to modern energy services by 2030

After mapping the current state of affairs, the GEA develops three different scenarios for tackling each of these challenges. The first one focuses primarily on energy efficiency, the second on the supply side, and the third scenario presents a middle course. Many alternative pathways of energy transformations are investigated within these scenarios. The main—and not surprising—conclusion that can be drawn from these projections is that a change to a sustainable energy future is possible, but requires immediate action. It also demands an integrated approach to energy system design, something that can only be achieved by coordinating policy actions across all of the different sectors and regulatory bodies involved. Such an integrated approach would also reveal how climate change mitigation brings  other advantages, such as increased energy security, a reduction in local pollution, job creation, and an economic revival for more neglected regions.

Energy efficiency comes first

While the GEA describes and explores various possibilities in each of its scenarios, it unequivocally states that energy efficiency should be the top priority for all energy policy makers. Energy efficiency by itself represents the most cost-effective, near-term option to cope with each of these challenges. The greatest energy savings potential is found in industry, transport, and building heating and cooling. A separate chapter is dedicated to each of those three energy consumption domains.
While browsing through the figures for global energy saving potentials, I wondered if they offer any guidance to policy makers, since they are bound to cancel out potentially strong regional differences. There are unquestionably substantial limitations to a global perspective. While it is necessary to formulate global goals and attune energy policy measures at a global level, the actual solution mix to reach those goals must still start from regional facts, figures, and needs if they are to ultimately succeed. When delving more deeply into the various chapters, it is quickly obvious that the authors have made a significant effort to provide regional perspectives, as far as this is possible in such a massive global assessment.
The chapter on renewable energy holds few surprises. The GEA states that they are abundant and increasingly cost-effective, but grid integration becomes difficult when their share in the electricity mix increases. Photovoltaic energy (PV) is still too expensive to compete wiithout financial incentives in most regions of the world, but this might change when super high efficiency PV panels mature. Unfortunately, this will not happen in the near future, since high efficiency PV is still in an early stage of development. Improving technology for storing renewable energy will be equally crucial. Hydrogen and ethanol are serious options and open up the potential to provide renewable energy to mobile applications.

There is a future for fossil fuels

The main transport energy solution put forward by the GEA, is—rather surprisingly—a new type of fuel. This fuel is produced by the Fischer-Trops process from a mixture of coal and low-impact biomass such as switchgrass, crop residues, and waste wood. Electricity and hydrogen are also discussed, but the drawbacks of those energy carriers seem to prevail over the disadvantages in the GEA. For electric vehicles, the batteries remain problematic insofar as weight, lifetime, and cost are concerned. The economic feasibility of hydrogen is very difficult due to very high infrastructure costs. The processing of coal by the Fischer-Trops technology, with removal of the carbon content, is one reason why the GEA still sees a role for fossil fuels in a sustainable energy future. The other promising fossil fuel technology is the coal fired power station with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). According to the GEA, CCS is well on the way of becoming a technology ripe for market. The GEA recognizes that the abundant physical reserves of fossil fuels like oil and natural gas still dominate. Peak oil will not happen because of a lack of resources; but is very likely to happen because of financial and environmental constraints. The fossil fuel sector must be willing to make fundamental changes if it is to survive in a sustainable energy future.

Universal (and safe?) energy access

The fourth major challenge—according to the GEA—is in achieving universal access to modern energy services by 2030, for all individuals and companies in all regions of the world. Although this is an ambitious goal, the GEA demonstrates that it is realistic providing there is enough political will to make it happen. Some efforts have already been made over the past decade, but a huge gap remains. While some governments—perhaps even most—recognize the situation, very few countries have developed a successful comprehensive approach. Strong political commitment is required to build-out appropriate financial incentives and micro-financing systems that can accelerate the necessary changes.
The chapter on universal access has its primary focus on rural electrification. Although urban electrification is also tackled, electrical safety is not mentioned at all. Nevertheless, the high safety risks directly attributable to illegal connections and illegal sub-selling of electricity in peri-urban areas is a strong argument for universal and official grid access. This consideration is not discussed by the GEA. Even more surprising is that in the chapter dedicated to health and safety, electrical safety is not mentioned either—not even briefly. Electrical safety is thus being ignored entirely by the GEA, which is an unfortunate void in this otherwise extremely exhaustive assessment.
 Finally, the GEA emphasizes the high importance of policy and regulation. The necessary technology shift to a sustainable energy system can only be achieved if all regulatory bodies involved with energy and energy dependent matters establish a clear, consistent, long-term, and stable course.
Source : Leonardo-energy