- Mainland China has 17 nuclear power reactors in operation, 30 under construction, and more about to start construction.
- Additional reactors are planned, including some of the world's most advanced, to give a four-fold increase in nuclear capacity to at least 58 GWe by 2020, then possibly 200 GWe by 2030, and 400 GWe by 2050.
- China has become largely self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle, but is making full use of western technology while adapting and improving it.
- China’s policy is for closed fuel cycle.
* Official measurements of fine particles in the
air measuring less than 2.5 micrometres, which pose the greatest health
risk, rose to a record 993 micrograms per cubic metre in Beijing on 12
January 2013, compared with World Health Organization guidelines of no
higher than 25.
The distribution of energy resources poses some challenges, notably
for north to south coal transport and east - west power transmission.Electricity consumption in 2012 rose only 5.5% to 4.9 trillion kWh, and it is expected to grow between 6.5% and 8.5% in 2013. In 2011 it rose 11.7% to 4693 billion kWh, according to the China Electricity Administration. Its 2010 increase of 14.56% to 4190 billion kWh corresponded with a 10% growth in GDP, according to the China Electricity Council. Some 3090 billion kWh of this (74%) was in industry. Nuclear power contributed 1.97% of the total production in 2012 – 98.2 billion kWh according to CNEA (IAEA data show 92.7 billion kWh net and 2%).
Installed generating capacity at the end of 2012 reached 1145 GWe 19% up in two years. Capacity growth is expected to slow, reaching about 1600 GWe in 2020, and
2000 GWe in 2025. Coal accounted for 59% of the newly-added capacity in 2012.
At the end of 2010, fossil fuelled capacity (mostly coal) reached 707
GWe, hydro capacity was 213 GWe (up 16.6 GWe in the year), nuclear
capacity was 10.8 GWe and wind capacity reached 31 GWe. Investment in
electricity dropped to CNY 705 billion ($107 billion) for the year. A
2013 report from the NDRC said that China added 15 GWe of wind energy
capacity in 2012 and 3 GWe of solar. It endorsed targets to add 21 GWe
of hydroelectric capacity, 18 GWe of wind and 10 GWe of solar in 2013.These capacity increase figures are all the more remarkable considering the forced retirement of small inefficient coal-fired plants: 26 GWe of these was closed in 2009 and 11 GWe in 2010, making 71 GWe closed since 2006, cutting annual coal consumption by about 82 million tonnes and annual carbon dioxide emissions by some 165 million tonnes. China is well advanced in developing and deploying supercritical and ultra-supercritical coal plants, as well as moving quickly to design and deploy technologies for integrated (coal) gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants. Nevertheless it consumed about 3.91 million tonnes of coal in 2012, more than half the world total, and coal comprised more than 70% of China’s primary energy.
The grid system run by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) and China Southern Power Grid Co (CSG) is sophisticated and rapidly growing, utilising ultra high voltage (1000 kV AC and 800 kV DC) transmission. By 2015 SGCC is investing CNY 500 billion ($75.5 billion) to extend the UHV grid to 40,000 km. By 2020, the capacity of the UHV network is expected to be some 300 GW, which will function as the backbone of the whole system, having 400 GWe of clean energy sources connected, of which hydropower will account for 78 GW, and wind power from the north a further significant portion. At present up to half of the wind output is wasted – 2.8 TWh in 2012, because of limited grid connections, according to a China Daily report. Wind capacity by 2020 is planned to be 100 GWe. Also by 2020, operational transmission losses are expected to be 5.7%, down from 6.6% in 2010. At the end of 2009, China had budgeted to spend $600 billion upgrading its grid. By 2020 operational transmission losses are expected to be 5.7%, down from 6.6% in 2010.
Among the main listed generators, Huaneng Power produced 203.5 billion kWh from its domestic plants in 2009, 10.2% up on 2008. Datang Power produced 141.9 billion kWh, 12% up on 2008. Huadian Power produced 107.5 billion kWh, 6.75% above 2008. CPI Development produced 43.9 billion kWh, 2.0% above 2008 level. The main nuclear operators are China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN).
While coal is the main energy source, most reserves are in the north or northwest and present an enormous logistical problem – nearly half the country's rail capacity is used in transporting coal. Because of the heavy reliance on old coal-fired plant, electricity generation accounts for much of the country's air pollution, which is a strong reason to increase nuclear share. China has overtaken the USA as the world's largest contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that China's share in global coal-related emissions will grow by 2.7% per year, from 4.9 billion tonnes in 2006 to 9.3 billion tonnes in 2030, some 52% of the projected world total. Total carbon dioxide emissions in China are projected to grow by 2.8% per year from 6.2 billion tonnes in 2006 to 11.7 billion tonnes in 2030 (or 28% of world total). In comparison, total US carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow by 0.3% per year, from 5.9 billion tonnes in 2006 to 7.7 billion tonnes in 2030.3 Gas consumption in 2013 is forecast to be 165 billion cubic metres, up 11.9% on 2012.
China's energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product met a target reduction of 20% from 2005 levels by the end of 2010, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The energy intensity targets for the following five years are expected to be about 17%. Per capita electricity consumption was 3510 kWh in 2012.
In March 2013 the NDRC announced new plans for seawater desalination.* China aims to produce 2.2 million m3/day of desal water by 2015, more than three times the 2011 level. More than half of the freshwater channelled to islands and more than 15% of water delivered to coastal factories will come from the sea by 2015, according to the plan.
* The list includes the cities of Shenzhen and
Zhoushan, Luxixiang Island in Zhejiang Province, Binhai New Area in
Tianjin, Bohai New Area in Hebei, and several industrial parks and
companies. The NDRC has asked the listed regions and companies to
actively promote the application of desalted water and encourage its use
in daily supplies. The cost is likely to be some CNY 21 billion ($3.35
billion).
Electricity generation is only one part of China's rapid development;
roads, air transport and a 16,000 km high-speed rail system (powered by
electricity) by 2020 are others. A record 486 km/h rail speed between
Beijing and Shanghai was achieved in 2010, and by January 2011, 8358 km
of 200 km/hr+ track was operational. By the end of 2011, 13,073 km of
such track is expected to be in service after further investment of CNY
700 billion ($106 billion). Also the world's longest bridge - the 42 km
Qingdao Haiwan bridge in Shandong province is being built.A white paper on Energy Policy was released by the State Council on 24 October 2012. This included raising the proportion of clean, low-carbon fossil energy and non-fossil energy in the energy mix, and promoting the efficient and clean utilization of coal. It aims to increase the shares of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption. "China will invest more in nuclear power technological innovations, promote application of advanced technology, improve the equipment level, and attach great importance to personnel training. China's installed capacity of nuclear power is expected to reach 40 GWe by 2015." The installed generating capacity of wind power is expected to reach 100 GWe by the end of 2015, and that of solar energy is
expected to exceed 21 GWe by then, with a total solar heat collection area of 400 million square metres.
Nuclear power has an important role, especially in the coastal areas remote from the coalfields and where the economy is developing rapidly. Generally, nuclear plants can be built close to centres of demand, whereas suitable wind and hydro sites are remote from demand. Moves to build nuclear power commenced in 1970 and about 2005 the industry moved into a rapid development phase. Technology has been drawn from France, Canada and Russia, with local development based largely on the French element. The latest technology acquisition has been from the USA (via Westinghouse, owned by Japan's Toshiba) and France. The State Nuclear Power Technology Corporation (SNPTC) has made the Westinghouse AP1000 the main basis of technology development in the immediate future, particularly evident as the local development of CAP1400.
This has led to a determined policy of exporting nuclear technology, based on China’s development of the CAP1400 reactor with Chinese intellectual property rights and backed by full fuel cycle capability. The policy is being pursued at a high level politically, utilising China's economic and diplomatic influence, and led by the initiative of CGN commercially, with SNPTC and most recently CNNC in support.
By around 2040, PWRs are expected to level off at 200 GWe and fast reactors progressively increase from 2020 to at least 200 GWe by 2050 and 1400 GWe by 2100.
Prior to 2008, the government had planned to increase nuclear generating capacity to 40 GWe by 2020 (out of a total 1000 GWe planned), with a further 18 GWe nuclear being under construction then. However, projections for nuclear power then increased to 70-80 GWe by 2020, 200 GWe by 2030 and 400-500 GWe by 2050. Following the Fukushima accident and consequent pause in approvals for new plants, the target adopted by the State Council in October 2012 is now 60 GWe by 2020, with 30 GWe under construction. National policy has moved from ‘moderate development’ of nuclear power to ‘positive development’ in 2004, and in 2011-12 to ‘steady development with safety’. See further comment under Post-Fukushima Review below.
In December 2011 the National Energy Administration (NEA) said that China will make nuclear energy the foundation of its power-generation system in the next "10 to 20 years", adding as much as 300 GWe of nuclear capacity over that period. Two weeks earlier the NDRC vice-director said that China would not swerve from its goal of greater reliance on nuclear power.
An early 2013 report from NDRC said that 3240 MWe nuclear capacity would be added in 2013.
In September 2010, the China Daily reported that China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) alone planned to invest CNY 800 billion ($120 billion) into nuclear energy projects by 2020. Total investment in nuclear power plants, in which CNNC will hold controlling stakes, will reach CNY 500 billion ($75 billion) by 2015, resulting in 40 GWe on line, according to CNNC. In order to fund the company's expansion target, CNNC planned to list its subsidiary, CNNC Nuclear Power Co Ltd in 2011, to attract strategic investors, but this apparently did not occur.
In July 2013 the NDRC set a wholesale power price of CNY 0.43 per kWh (7 US cents/kWh) for all new nuclear power projects, to promote the healthy development of nuclear power and guide investment into the sector. The price is to be kept relatively stable but will be adjusted with technology advances and market factors. Nuclear power is already competitive, and wholesale price to grid has been less than power form coal plants with flue gas desulfurization.
Hong Kong supply
Hong Kong gets much of its power from mainland China, in particular about 70% of the output from Daya Bay's 1888 MWe net nuclear capacity is sent there. The Hong Kong government plans to close down its coal-fired plants, and by 2020 to get 50% of its power from mainland nuclear (now 23%), 40% from gas locally and 3% from renewables. Hong Kong utility China Light & Power has equity in CGN's Daya Bay and Yangjiang power plants, and may take equity in a further CGN nuclear plant. Since 1994 it gets one third of its power from Daya Bay output, and this contract now runs to 2034.Regulation and safety – general
The National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) under the China Atomic Energy Authority was set up in 1984 and is the licensing and regulatory body which also maintains international agreements regarding safety. It reports to the State Council directly, but is perceived to be insufficiently independent of the CAEA, which plans new capacity and approves feasibility studies for new plants (see also SCRO report below). In relation to the AP1000, NNSA works closely with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.China has shown unprecedented eagerness to achieve world's best standards in nuclear safety (as also in civil aviation). It has requested and hosted 12 Operational Safety Review Team (OSART) missions from IAEA teams to October 2011, and each plant generally has one external safety review each year, either OSART, WANO peer review, or CNEA peer review (with the Research Institute for Nuclear Power Operations, RINPO).
Following the Fukushima accident in Japan in March 2011, the government suspended its approval process pending a review of lessons which might be learned from it, particularly regarding siting of reactors with plant layout, and control of radiation release. Safety checks of operating plants were undertaken immediately, and review of those under construction was completed in October 2011. Resumption of approvals for further new plants was suspended until a new nuclear safety plan was accepted and State Council approval given in October 2012 (see also Post-Fukushima review below).
Following the Fukushima accident, concern regarding possible river pollution will mean delays until at lest 2015 to the inland AP1000 plants which were due to start construction in 2011.
(Source : world -nuclear )
0 nhận xét:
Đăng nhận xét